Last week,
The Bayou Brief sat down with Lafayette lawyer Josh Guillory, who is challenging Clay Higgins for Louisiana’s third congressional district. Here’s a transcript of our conversation, which has been edited for clarity.
Lamar White (LW): It’s great to talk with you again, Josh. How are things going?
Josh Guillory (JG): Going well. We’re building momentum. But between practicing law, running for office, and dad and spousal duties, it’s been busy.
LW: How many people are in the race so far? Do you know?
JG: Definitely me. Definitely Clay Higgins. I think there’s a total of five so far. I know Phillip Conner out of Lake Charles is also in. But I think there are two others as well.
LW: So five different candidates. Why do you think so many people have already signed up- or expressed their intention and willingness to sign up- to run against Captain Clay Higgins?
JG: I think it’s clear. We need a leader, and not a lightning rod. And I mean that. We need an adequate voice, Lamar. They probably are all running for the same reasons I am. I give them all the benefit of the doubt. You know? We want an adequate voice in Washington, and we are lacking that.
We need someone who lives here in the district. Someone who knows what we’re going through. Someone who feels the legislation coming out of Washington.
LW: A lot of people, including one of his colleagues, Mike Johnson, the Republican congressman from Bossier City, believes that Clay has the ability to raise a ton of money- national money- because of his celebrity. And let’s be honest: The major reason he won was because of his videos on YouTube and his appearances on national television.
How do you combat that? Obviously, money is a major factor in politics, and the power of incumbency is real. Something like 95% of incumbents win re-election, right? How do you break through?
JG: Well, I’m going to raise money, Lamar, just like I’m going to lead this district: I’m going to stay inside this district. I’m going to go to my neighbor to help me raise funds, because I want to represent them in Congress. You know, I can’t combat with extremism, and I can’t combat with YouTube videos. And that’s fine.
I feel very good with where we are. We’re challenging an incumbent, and we’re neck-and-neck with him. It is true- and the FEC reports will tell you- that he’s raised more money than us, but he’s wasted more than we have too. And that’s my problem with Congress.
LW: When he ran two years ago, it really was a surprise to a lot of people that he was able to beat Scott Angelle. You know, Scott Angelle is this native boy; he speaks with this amazing Cajun accent; he’s worked for both Democrats and Republicans; he was head of DNR; for a second, he was Lt. Governor, and then he ran for Governor. Now, by the way, he works for Trump. It still seems astonishing to me that Clay beat Scott.
Was this a part of the age of Trump? Because it seems to me that if we had known about any other candidate, in any other election, that he failed to pay child support, that he was fired from multiple jobs, that he had been disciplined for excessive force as a police officer, and that he had used a government e-mail address to conduct private business, that candidate would have lost resoundingly?
Was this an anomaly? Was this part of the age of Trump? How do you break through against an establishment candidate like Scott Angelle- I mean, Clay Higgins, rather?
JG: I’d agree with the latter part of that. Clay Higgins is the establishment candidate. He’s worse than that. He’s the establishment’s puppet. Because if you put anything with an R on it, he is going to vote for it.
Now, I think there are a lot of positive attributes with Scott Angelle. There are probably a lot of positive attributes with Clay Higgins, but look, we could go on for hours and hours. What I personally think is: There was a wave. People wanted someone they perceived to be a political outsider, but whether Scott Angelle is really an insider, I don’t know.
The point is: Clay has to run on his record now. And look, I can put up with the grandiosity. I can, as long as his voting record supported what he said he was going to do when he was a candidate.
You know, I am a Republican challenging an incumbent Republican, and two years ago, the electorate voted for someone who they felt was an outsider. Not someone who would go in there and just vote the same way that we’ve been doing for decades.
We need leadership.
LW: Are there any particular votes that he has made during the past two years you cry foul over?
JG: Yeah. His first vote on a piece of major legislation, which was to increase our debt by a half a trillion dollars.
LW: You’re referring to the recent tax reform bill? I thought that increased the debt by more than $1.5 trillion?
JG: No. This was way back, last January or February. I may be incorrect, but I believe it was Senate Concurrent Resolution #3.
LW: A concurrent resolution with the House?
JG: That’s right. It increased our debt by more than $582 billion. And that’s what really compelled me, that’s what put me over the top to run.
We can debate on how to spend money, but one thing- and I’m sure your parents taught you this, as did mine- is that “If you’ve got a dollar, don’t spend a dollar and five cents.”
We can debate on what we want to spend money on, but don’t be fiscally irresponsible when you’re preaching something quite differently on the campaign trail. So, that’s one vote.
I think another extremely detrimental vote was the one to increase flood insurance premiums on Louisiana families, and you know, the Louisiana delegation was not unified in that. Half voted against it; half voted for it.
But more than just balancing our budget to an equilibrium, we should be balancing it to a surplus.
Lamar, you and I grew up in Louisiana. Here, when someone is on the ground, you pick them up; you don’t kick them in the ribs.
This macroeconomy that we’ve been touting- this “boom” we’ve been experiencing nationally- that’s fine, but here in Louisiana, we’ve been hurting. Oil fields are down. We’ve been trying to get jobs back.
Look, you don’t increase flood insurance premiums on people who have been affected like we have.
LW: I don’t feel like a lot of people know of that vote, and I hope it’s something that is fleshed out throughout the course of the campaign. Because certainly, people would be offended- throughout the state- to learn that this man voted to raise flood insurance premiums. We’re Louisiana, after all.
But I wanted to ask something you said about oil and gas and its influence in our economy. You’re seeking to represent an area that includes what is colloquially called “Cancer Alley.” Calcasieu, Cameron, and the entire region are home to a number of massive petrochemical plants and oil and gas refineries.
There’s been a significant number of studies that conclude this particular region is home to increased rates of cancer and all sorts of other diseases and disorders.
In your district, nearly 70% of people support the lawsuits against these companies for the damages they’ve inflicted on our environment. What is your position?
JG: Sure, you bring up a lot of points. Let’s talk first about the lawsuits. Many of these suits are so-called “legacy lawsuits.” I’m a 10th Amendment guy. That’s a state issue. I’m running for a federal position. I think the states should decide, and that’s purely up to the Louisiana legislature.
In regard to the environment, it’s simple. I want a clean one.
In regard to the medical and health effects resulting from oil and gas facilities, I think there is a direct correlation between education and medical care. You know, we spend more money incarcerating people in this state than we do educating them. If we spent more money on education, we would have better health care outcomes, decisions, and choices.
LW: It is interesting that in the 1991 gubernatorial campaign, David Duke was more of the environmental candidate than Edwin Edwards was. He spoke a lot about hunting and fishing, and it was a message that resonated, particularly among rural white voters. Of course, there were other factors at play, and many contend that Duke’s pro-environmentalism platform was actually informed by Nazi ideology, which promoted racial and environmental “purity” if you will.
I’m not asking for us to relitigate the 1991 election, but the environment is a critically important issue here in Louisiana. And, in my opinion, our leaders need to do a better job emphasizing its importance. How can we do that?
JG: One, common sense. Let’s make common sense common again.
Two, let us lead by example through a dialogue. We’re too polarized in this country, and the environment, in my opinion, should be the last thing we are polarized on. Look, I want clean water. That shouldn’t be a Republican issue or a Democratic issue.
I think there’s so much middle ground on all of this stuff. Recently, I’ve been attending meetings hosted by all sorts of different groups. One was hosted by the Concerned Citizens for Good Government, and that topic came up. We were talking about global warming, and this group was very diverse. People on the far right, the far left, and a whole lot of folks in the middle. And just by having that conversation, we found several areas in which there was significant agreemnent.
One thing we could do is, instead of worrying about labels, we should worry about solutions. Do we want clean air? Yes. So, how do we get there? Do we want to restore our coast? Absolutely. That will require leadership by Congress. I know we put three men on the moon in 1969. I’m pretty confident we can use the mud that we take out of the ground to help restore our coast.
LW: Let’s pivot to health care. Obviously, you are a Republican. You’re running as a Republican.
JG: I’m running as an American.
LW: Gotcha. Well, we’ve seen in your district thousands and thousands of more people who now have health insurance as a result of Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act. Obviously, though, there are still significant fixes that need to be made; it’s still broken. What’s your opinion on the Affordable Care Act, and where should we go on health care policy in both this state and the country?
JG: Dialogue. Dialogue. I can’t say it enough. Put the labels down. Leave them at the door. If we aren’t going to repeal and replace, then fix it. It’s common sense.
I think we ask the wrong questions about health care. We are always asking “Who is going to pay?”, and in my opinion, we need to be asking, “Why does health care cost so much?”. That’s a genuine question. I’m not asking that rhetorically.
Look, I am confident that there are wonderful Democrats across the aisle who would want to fix the issues that are broken. Is the whole act bad? No. But like you said, parts of it are broken. We need to strive for solutions.
LW: I studied health care law in law school, and I know you’re a lawyer. I’m not sure if you took any classes on health care, but for me, it was basically my concentration. And it seems to me that a lot of what is driving up costs aren’t what people typically believe. For example, there has always been a huge emphasis, particularly among Republicans, about medical malpractice. But med mal accounts for less than 2% of our total costs, as does “waste, fraud, and abuse.” The drivers of costs are really our system’s prioritization of specialized care and on technology.
I give people this example all of the time. Dentists who buy a new X-ray machine. These are really expensive machines, and chances are, if you go to a dentist who purchased or is leasing a new machine, you’re going to get X-rayed, even if you don’t need it, even if you were just X-rayed recently. That makes your typical visit to the dentist much more expensive, because your dentist has to pay off his note for this expensive piece of equipment.
The same thing can be said about specialization. Do you always need the opinion of a specialist who is going to charge you hundreds, if not thousands, of more dollars than a general practioner or a family doctor? Maybe sometimes you do.
I’m not sure if I really have a question here. I’m just curious to hear your thoughts.
JG: This is exactly what I’m talking about. These are the kind of conversations we need to have. But it’s not just about asking questions. It’s also about asking the right people the right questions. That is one of my criticisms about the Affordable Care Act. When it was being rolled out, it didn’t seem like anyone was asking folks who actually have their boots on the ground what their opinions were.
In my district, we have a lot of rural and poor areas. So, for me, my priority is making sure that health care in my district is affordable. I want health care to be accessible.
If that means coming up with legislation to allow these satellite clinics to be in areas so that people do not have to drive twenty or thirty miles to see a doctor, sure, I’m for that.
LW: So let’s talk about race relations. Here in Louisiana, we have had debates over Confederate monuments in New Orleans, Alexandria, and Lafayette, and last week, The New York Times featured an eleven minute-long video about the debate in Shreveport. Now, I know that this is a state’s issue, ultimately, but it has become a national conversation. What do you think about this conversation?
JG: With respect to the statues, I can tell you something that, as a Congressman, as a federal officerholder, that I would never do. I would never write an open letter to our governor like Clay Higgins did. I think that was divisive. I think it was inflammatory. And I think it didn’t do anyone any good.
That was a fruitless fight right there. It helped no one, and it potentially made us even more divided.
I believe leaders must lead by example. You lead with your heart. You demonstrate empathy. There are so many things that others have experienced that I’ve never gone through. As a white male, I have not experienced some of the prejudices that many of our neighbors have experienced, but that doesn’t mean I cannot empathize. God gave us a heart. We need to use it. That’s, again, not a Republican issue or a Democratic issue.
You have to be able to represent all people. I’m not running just to be the Republican representative of the Third District. I’m running to be the representative of all people in this district.
Like I said, leaders lead by example, and my campaign staff is ethnically and racially diverse. When I create a team, both in Washington and back home, it will be diverse. We need to open the doors of opportunity to everybody.
LW: I know two of your campaign consultants, and they’re friends of mine. I know they’ve worked on campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats alike, but I consider them to be progressives. So I think it would surprise a lot of people that you’ve already attracted progressive support. I hate to be cynical with you, Josh, but do you think that maybe that’s a symptom of Democrats feeling as if there is no way they can win in that district? Do you think it’s because they see you as a moderate they can work with, or do you think it’s something that they see about you, based on your own professional record, that compels them to support you?
JG: I can’t speak for anyone else, but I think they know that when I get to Congress, I’m going to do the right thing. I’m cognizant not to traffic on labels, but if we have to go there, well, fiscally, I’m extremely conservative. I just don’t want to spend more money than we bring in. I think that’s a common sense thing. So, maybe instead of saying fiscally conservative, we should probably say fiscally responsible.
On other issues, I’m probably a lot more flexible. But look, the bottom line is, when I go to Washington, I’m going to do what is right for my district, for my state, and for my country, and that is what we desperately need. That is what we are lacking in the representative we have right now.
Sometimes, that means going against your party. Sometimes, that means taking the road less traveled. Maybe sometimes that won’t be popular. Maybe it’ll mean that I won’t get invited to some really cool luncheons in Washington, D.C. That’s fine. I’m really good with microwavable dinners. But I’m committed to working for my district, to working with my colleagues, regardless of their political affiliation.
LW: Is there anyone in Louisiana, either in our delegation or someone that holds a statewide office, that you particularly admire?
JG: That’s a loaded question, Lamar.
LW: It is a loaded question.
JG: Absolutely, I am committed to working with every member of our delegation. But more specifically, I do like Cedric Richmond’s vote on the flood insurance premiums. I like Garret Graves’s vote, and I like Ralph Abraham’s vote. All three of those representatives put state over party, though, in Richmond’s case, party wasn’t a consideration.
I read the bill. I read their statements about their opposition. And I like what Garret Graves said about it, which is that this is nothing more than another tax.
The sad thing about this is that it hits people with lower incomes so much more disproportionately than it hits people who have economic means. They may not even notice it. That’s not a class warfare statement; that’s just the bottom line.
LW: Last year, I spent a little bit of time in Lake Charles. We had a small gathering for The Bayou Brief‘s launch, and the group was primarily progressive, though there were at least a couple of moderates there. In fact, as I recall, one of your opponents was there. But anyway, they spent a lot of time talking about the so-called bubble economy that has been created there as a result of the construction of large oil and gas refineries. For example, there was projected to be more than 5,000 new students in their school system, and that never materialized. Because, for the most part, these are temporary jobs that are filled by people who live in Texas. They’ve kept their families in Texas. They are not buying homes in Lake Charles. They’re living in temporary housing constructed near these facilities.
Everyone at this gathering, to a person, said basically the same thing, “We have not seen the economic results we were promised.” Yet we’re giving away a lot of money to lure these facilities in. How do we solve this? Do you think it’s a bubble economy?
JG: The plants seem to be stable, so I’m not sure it is a bubble economy. But any time I get a question like that, I ask, “What’s the goal?”. Well, the goal here is to create long-term stability, not these little bubble economies that are created temporarily.
Second, my question is, “As a federal representative, how can I help?”. Obviously, I can build partnerships from the City Council level to the state government to the U.S. Congress. Now, some of these tax incentives are up to the state legislature and the governor. But we should be asking, if these incentives are not creating long-term stability, then maybe we shouldn’t do that.
From a federal perspective, I’ll tell you how I can help: Infrastructure.
How many distributorships could we possibly get if we completed I-49 south? How many jobs could we create if we didn’t have to beg for money to dredge our ports. The port of Morgan City will take $18 million to dredge, and they only have $6 million right now. This is one of the only areas of the federal government in which, when they put a dollar in, they get a dollar back.
LW: Let me ask you something that I think will surprise a lot of readers. You’re a Republican from Louisiana, and the last time we spoke on the record was a few years ago. You were representing a lesbian couple in which one of the women was seeking to adopt their child. It was an historic lawsuit, and you won that case.
Obviously, you took this case for a principled reason. You didn’t have to take the case. I’m curious about your thoughts on this case and on the larger issue.
JG: Well, I hope other Republicans join on this issue. Let’s talk about things that matter. You threw some labels. You said “lesbian couple” or “gay couple;” I just see a couple. I’m Josh Guillory speaking here. I just see a couple. I see two human beings.
I’m not going to change my answer because I’m running for Congress. I’m going to do the right thing.
Now, in that specific case, to opine, I’ve known those two ladies for quite some time. And I know their little boy. And they are good people.
I have a family. I adopted my son. And I just can’t imagine living in the land of the free and having to see a couple that is- where if something were to happen to the biological parent, the other parent, who, by the way, has been raising that child for his entire life and was the first person to hold him after he was born, would not have parental primacy. That’s appalling.
I’m not telling the Roman Catholic Church that they have to recognize marriages between same-sex couples, because I also believe in religious liberty. And this wasn’t my idea. That idea has been around since 1791 when the First Amendment was established and ratified.
I believe in equality, and I will never, ever apologize for it.
LW: I promise I won’t keep you too much longer. Really quick background questions. You’re 33 or 34?
JG: 35. Just turned 35 yesterday.
LW: Oh, well, happy birthday.
JG: You know Elvis has the same birthday as me?
LW: Really? Well, Karl Marx has the same birthday as I do.
JG: Well, imagine that!
LW: And you were born and raised in Alexandria but have spent the past decade or so in Lafayette?
JG: Moved here when I was 18 and have been living here ever since.
LW: And you’re a graduate of ULL? What year did you graduate?
JG: 2004.
LW: What was your degree in?
JG: Business.
LW: And where did you go to law school?
JG: Southern. I was in their night program. Worked every day. And we had our third child right smack dab in the middle, during finals week of my third semester.
LW: So, how long have you been practicing law?
JG: Since 2011. So, a little bit over six and a half years.
LW: And what kind of law do you practice?
JG: Overwhelming majority is family law. Probably over 80%. I love adoption cases. If I could do nothing but adoptions, I would.
I also do constitutional law.
LW: You were also in the Army, right?
JG: Yep. I started in the National Guard and then went on active duty.
LW: Were you deployed abroad?
JG: I went to Iraq in 2005.
LW: How long was your tour?
JG: Five and a half months.
LW: And what was that like?
JG: Not to be corny, but it genuinely was the greatest honor of my life. I trust in God. I really do. And you know, today, when I was driving on the interstate to Lake Charles, I was trusting in God. I believe God will take me when it’s my time to go. Now, that doesn’t mean I wasn’t scared in Iraq.
LW: Did you lose friends?
JG: Of course, yes, we lost folks. And I will say this: I deployed out of a National Guard unit, and my platoon- I’m a calvary officer, but had an infantry platoon- were from New York. 34 of the 39 men in my platoon were from New York. Most were from New York City.
LW: Really?
JG: Yes. And talk about diversity and a mixture of ideas.
LW: And did you enlist because of 9/11?
JG: No, I enlisted before 9/11. On June 19th, 2001. And I was enlisted first. Then, I went to OCS and became an officer. I began and ended my service with the National Guard, and I also served on active duty periodically.
LW: So, I have a couple of more questions about Donald Trump. If you had to give him a grade, what would it be?
JG: Well, I’m not going to do that, but I will say this: I support the Office of the President, and I will work with the Office of the President. Whether we’re Democrats or Republicans, we have to work with the Office of the President. It doesn’t mean we always have to agree.
We need someone who will work for every American, and in my opinion, he needs to stop the tweeting.
LW: Do you think that Donald Trump is a role model for children?
JG: I think he could carry himself in a different manner.
LW: So you’re willing to work with Democrats and President Trump collaboratively?
JG: Absolutely. And I’ll tell you what I won’t do: I won’t sit with my arms crossed and just say no to everything. We need people who are willing and able to come up with common sense solutions for the American people, regardless of party.
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Marcus Williams will be okay, I think. He’s young. He has a lot of time to learn from this play, to steel his resolve, to become better and better.
And he’s in the right place to do it: New Orleans, a city that welcomes sinners and saints alike. A city that makes room for the oddballs, the misfits, the screwups, the outcasts, from any and all walks of life.
This isn’t a city where he’s going to get booed every time he steps on the field. This isn’t Boston, where Bill Buckner received death threats and had to be released half a season after his infamous World Series error. This isn’t Chicago, where Steve Bartman had to receive police protection at his home in the aftermath of his interference with a foul ball. New Orleans is a city where if Marcus Williams sticks around for us, we’ll love him all the more for it. New Orleans is a city that holds its heroes close and its almost-heroes even closer, because they need it the most.
I’m not worried about Marcus Williams. New Orleans is one of the best places in the world to go when you need to find forgiveness. It’s a place where the people accept you for who you are. And who Marcus Williams is is a really damn good football player who is only going to get better.
Abraham recently claimed that he is considering a run against incumbent Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards.
Divisional preview
Going into the weekend, most Saints fans were mentally preparing for a trip to 1 seed Philadelphia. That all changed when the Atlanta Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams Saturday night, sending them to play the Eagles and leaving the Saints-Panthers winner headed to Minnesota to face the Vikings. While the matchup with Philadelphia was projected to be easier, as they are missing Carson Wentz, the change in circumstances comes with a hidden bonus: If the Saints and Falcons both pull off wins, the NFC Championship Game will be in the Superdome.
The Saints and Vikings have already played once in Minnesota; the Vikings won 29-19 in week 1, although those were practically two different teams. Sam Bradford was still handing off to Dalvin Cook and burning De’Vante Harris with his passing. Adrian Peterson was still getting carries for New Orleans. The Vikings lost both of their offensive catalysts to injury, although Case Keenum has been playing lights-out for Minnesota. Peterson has long since been shipped to Arizona, and management finally got so sick of Harris getting burned that they relegated him to the practice squad. The rematch should be more favorable for the Saints than the initial matchup was, although unfortunately the Saints have suffered so many injuries that the overall talent level may not quite be there. The latest of those injuries is the broken leg suffered by starting left guard Andrus Peat last week. Senio Kelemete will fill in capably, but he’s still not the same player, and this could prove a weakness against a team with such a strong defensive line as the Vikings.
(The Saints are now missing ten projected starters to injury: Peat, Zach Strief, John Kuhn, Coby Fleener, Nick Fairley, Alex Okafor, A.J. Klein, Alex Anzalone, Kenny Vaccaro, and Delvin Breaux. That number doesn’t include players who had to step in as starters after other players were injured, like Hau’oli Kikaha. The Saints have twenty-one players in total on reserve, including a whopping eight defensive linemen. Somehow, thankfully, four of the Saints’ projected top six defensive linemen have stayed healthy all year.)
Fortunately, the Saints match up well with the Vikings in other areas. I mentioned in last week’s preview that the injuries to Kenny Vaccaro and the linebacker crew meant the team would probably have difficulty covering Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey; this proved prescient, as the duo combined for 14 catches, 208 of Carolina’s 349 receiving yards, and both of the team’s touchdowns. The Vikings, on the other hand, don’t have a stud receiving back with Cook gone (although Jerick McKinnon does have nifty athleticism) or a game-changing tight end (Kyle Rudolph, in the words of Jack Donaghy, is capable, but he’s not a star). The Vikings’ best offensive playmakers are receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen; you may recall last time out that the two tuned up the Saints to the effect of 9 catches for 153 yards for Thielen, and 7 for 93, with two touchdowns, for Diggs. However, those numbers were often achieved by targeting P.J. Williams and De’Vante Harris in coverage; with Ken Crawley now joining Marshon Lattimore in the starting lineup, that kind of production will not be nearly as easy for Minnesota to achieve. The Saints’ defensive strengths match up well with the Vikings’ offensive strengths.
Similarly, though the Vikings have a fearsome pass rush led by bookends Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter (now in his third year, Hunter notoriously had more sacks as a backup rookie than he did in his entire college career at LSU), the Saints are strong at tackle with Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. If they can slow down Minnesota’s pass rush, Drew Brees will have a shot to find open receivers.
Of course, that could be difficult in its own right, given the strength of the Vikings elsewhere. Xavier Rhodes was a first-team All-Pro at cornerback, and he’ll almost certainly be asked to shadow Michael Thomas. Free safety Harrison Smith was also a first-team All-Pro, and his range and playmaking ability could make it difficult for New Orleans to successfully stretch the field with Ginn. Linebacker Anthony Barr has bounced back after an injury-plagued 2016 and, unfortunately, has the kind of athleticism needed to keep up with Alvin Kamara, while middle linebacker Eric Kendricks is a mainstay of the defense, a tackling machine with great instincts and recognition who almost never leaves the field, who rated as the #5 inside linebacker this last NFL season 
It’s going to be a difficult game; the Vikings opened as 3.5-point favorites, which has now moved to 5 at most books. (Home-field advantage is worth about 3 of those points.) If the Saints were healthier– with Peat, Fleener, Vaccaro, A.J. Klein, Alex Okafor, and Alex Anzalone in particular playing– I think that line would change. But the Saints have a chance: They still have the talent and coaching required to make this a competitive match. Their best hope may be to rattle Case Keenum; although Keenum has had an outstanding year, someone with his track record as a career backup and spot starter can still be prone to mistakes and getting rattled. (Keenum’s biggest weakness during his Houston Texans days was his inability to handle a blitz, as he often turned and ran when pressure came unblocked.)
Forcing turnovers would be huge, as the Saints could use every advantage in field position they can get against the Vikings defense, and if they manage to score on a return or two, so much the better. Oddly enough, the Saints have had a largely inverse relationship with turnovers and winning this season than is typical. They’ve lost three times this year when they had the turnover advantage, going 3-3 in those situations, and only 2-2 when they had a turnover margin of +2 or more. (Research is limited in this regard, but what I can find suggests that teams that win the turnover battle by 2 or more tend to win more than 80% of the time.) Just as strangely, in the five games the Saints had a negative turnover margin, they went 5-0. (The Bears, Jets, Buccaneers, and Packers without Aaron Rodgers weren’t the toughest teams on the schedule.) Of course, over time we’d expect these numbers to sort themselves out and shouldn’t conclude that the team is better when they turn the ball over.
What is certain is that this will be a very competitive game. The Saints have hope, but it’s not going to be easy. In a year where forces seem to be lining up for them just right, though, wouldn’t it be appropriate if the Saints pulled out 
(I had the cut the frame rate in half to fit the whole return in.)
The Saints’ special teams have been one of the squad’s weaker units in recent memory (the consistently excellent Thomas Morstead aside), but after hiring legendary special teams coach Mike Westhoff midseason, they’ve begun to improve. Putting Kamara to return kicks just in time for the playoffs will give them an explosive element there, and might be enough of an improvement to the unit to tip the difference in a close game to the Saints.
The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games after the eight-game winning streak, and 1-3 in one-score games on the year (all of which have come in the last seven weeks). Combine that record in close games with the rash of injuries (nineteen players are now on IR or the NFI list), and they could use every advantage they can find.
Individual accolades
With the season over, it’s time to look at the individual milestones set by various players, including the AP All-Pro awards which were announced Friday.
Cameron Jordan is the team’s lone first-team All-Pro, finishing second in votes at the edge rusher position to Calais Campbell. It’s a long-deserved award for one of the most versatile and tireless two-way defenders in the NFL. Jordan was surely aided by his thirteen sacks this year, a personal best, but he also set career marks with 48 solo tackles and an outstanding 12 passes defensed. (The latter number is tops by a defensive lineman by a substantial margin; second place finished with 7.)
Beyond Jordan, Alvin Kamara finished second in voting at the offensive flex position behind Le’Veon Bell; if you want to call Kamara a second-team All-Pro, I won’t argue. Marshon Lattimore finished tied for fifth at cornerback (third team) and tied for fifth at the generic “defensive back” (nickelback) position. Four of New Orleans’ offensive linemen– Ryan Ramczyk, Andrus Peat, Larry Warford, and Max Unger– received exactly one vote, which suggests one voter recognized the importance and level of the line’s contributions to the Saints offense this season.
Drew Brees sealed the single-season completion percentage record, officially finishing at 72.0%. He takes it back from Sam Bradford, whose 71.6% last year broke Brees’ own record of 71.2%, set in 2011, which broke Brees’ own record of 70.6% in 2009, which broke Ken Anderson’s 1982 mark of 70.6%. (While both Brees’ and Anderson’s seasons round to the same number, going one decimal further reveals that Brees’ mark was 70.62% while Anderson’s was 70.55%.)
Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara became the first pair of teammates at running back to each finish with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in NFL history.
Michael Thomas set a Saints record for receptions in a season, with his 104 beating Jimmy Graham’s mark of 99; he also set the record for most receptions in the first two seasons of an NFL career. (The mark was previously held by Jarvis Landry. In third place is Odell Beckham; Landry and Beckham were teammates at LSU before being selected in the 2014 NFL draft. That’s a short stretch of territory, from Tiger Stadium to the Superdome, where young receivers thrive.)
Marcus Williams had two interceptions this week to get to four total on the year; the nine that he and Marshon Lattimore combined for is the most by a pair of rookies on the same team since Jairus Byrd and Cary Harris for Buffalo in 2009.
And in perhaps the best indicator of Jeff Ireland’s qualifications for executive of the year, Pro Football Focus’ rookie of the year list included four Saints in the top ten:
I’d also highly recommend 
The two other impressive performances were delivered by your usual suspects, the Saints’ two Pro Bowl defenders. Cameron Jordan was a persistent nuisance in the Falcons’ backfield and delivered two sacks of Matt Ryan, pushing his total for the year to 12, a half-sack off his career best. The Saints sacked Ryan five times in a total, a major factor in slowing down the Falcons’ offense. (George Johnson added 1.5 sacks to his sack last week; for a late-season rotational addition to the defensive line, he’s been awfully productive.)
Marshon Lattimore didn’t have the kind of complete shutdown day we expect of him– he was guarding Julio Jones, after all– but he provided two outstanding plays in particular. The first was his tackle of Jones on a critical third-and-goal, where Jones got his feet in the end zone, but Lattimore successfully prevented his forward progress, keeping Jones from getting the ball into the end zone. On fourth down, a Devonta Freeman run was stuffed for no gain, as Hau’oli Kikaha made the initial hit, and Ken Crawley finished the tackle. But that situation wouldn’t have been possible without Lattimore’s determined play. In a game of inches, Lattimore’s ability to not give an inch proved crucial.
The second, of course, is the now-infamous Butt Interception. While it was something of a fluke play– and still needs a catchy, definitive name– it still took tremendous awareness by Lattimore to realize where the ball was and secure it. Lattimore’s fifth interception of the year ranks him among the league leaders; only four players have more.
It’s hard to be too hyperbolic when describing Lattimore’s play. It’s rare a rookie cornerback makes much of a positive impact at all. It’s rarer still when a cornerback as young as Lattimore (21) makes a positive impact as a rookie. (Remember the “project” who famously busted, Stanley Jean-Baptiste? He was 24 as a rookie.) Rarest of all is that such a young rookie is not only making a positive impact, but playing like one of the very best players in the league at his position. Assuming he stays healthy– and there have been a few moments this year where we fans collectively held our breath– he should be a top player in the league, not just at his position, but in the entire league, for years to come.
I haven’t covered the offense much yet, because they didn’t do anything particularly exciting. The Saints had a couple of longer drives that ended in field goals, but their two touchdowns came on big plays. Mark Ingram’s breakaway 26-yard touchdown run in the third quarter made it 20-3 and, in conjunction with the ensuing fourth-and-goal stop, essentially ended the game. Ted Ginn’s touchdown, where he got wide open behind Desmond Trufant and the Falcons defense and took a deep pass 54 yards to the end zone, took the score from 6-0 to 13-0 just before halftime, a major shift in the Saints’ win probability.
Even with Ingram’s breakaway TD run, Ingram and Alvin Kamara only combined for 76 yards on 25 carries. The offense struggled to get going in the running game, and even the passing game was only intermittently successful. Brees completed 75% of his passes but also threw an interception, and the team only converted 3 of 13 third-down attempts. Kamara did most of his damage out of the backfield receiving, with a 7/58 line there, and Michael Thomas and Ginn each caught four passes. (Thomas is now four catches away from Jarvis Landry’s record for most receptions in a player’s first two seasons; at 98 this season, he’s one away from Jimmy Graham’s franchise record for most receptions in a single season.)
Amazingly, though the Saints at last clinched a playoff berth with this win, they still have not clinched the division title. The Panthers keep winning, and so both teams remain 11-4 going into the final week. While the Saints go to Tampa to play a 4-11 Buccaneers team that has little left to play for (and go to Tampa as a touchdown favorite), Carolina has to travel to Atlanta, where the 9-6 Falcons are favored by six and can clinch a playoff berth if they win. Because the Saints have the tiebreaker over the Panthers after sweeping them in the regular season, it will only take a Saints win or Panthers loss for New Orleans to lock up the division title. Carolina is locked into the fifth seed if they can’t win the division, so if New Orleans gets a big lead early I’d expect them to start resting players.
The only other interesting possibility for New Orleans’ playoff fortunes is what happens with the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams beat the Saints earlier in the year, and so they have the tiebreaker for the #3 seed even though both teams sit at 11-4. However, the difference between the #3 and #4 seed is fairly marginal, so Los Angeles has already announced they’re planning to rest some of their best players, like Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald, as well as QB Jared Goff. This opens the door for San Francisco to sneak out another win– they are 4-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting QB, after all– and that could give the Saints the opportunity to jump into the third seed. It would mean that Los Angeles would get to travel to play Carson Wentz-less Philadelphia, rather than to Minnesota– but that kind of gamesmanship and engineering a result often comes back to bite teams. (The last time the Saints played Minnesota, Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook were in the Vikings’ lineup, and De’Vante Harris and Adrian Peterson were in the Saints’.) If that happens, the best possible scenario, and the karmically fitting one, would see the Saints hosting the Rams in the NFC championship game.
First things first, though! Sealing up the win at Tampa and the division title is the immediate business. The Saints are playoff-bound; they need to win the division to secure at least one home game. If they can do that, though, the NFC is wide open this year, and the Saints have proven a gritty and resilient team that has plowed through a rash of injuries to step up its performance in the biggest games and most crucial moments.
A.J. Klein was just placed on injured reserve; the loss of the team’s every-down linebacker is a significant blow, and could make it tough for the team to defend the Falcons’ running backs. It’ll be interesting to see how they adjust. Hau’oli Kikaha played linebacker against the Jets, but I would’ve thought they might go with Kenny Vaccaro instead, moving him into a de facto linebacker role, perhaps shadowing Devonta Freeman. However, Vaccaro was also placed on injured reserve a couple of days ago, making him the sixth Saints defensive starter to go on IR this season, joining Nick Fairley, Delvin Breaux, Alex Anzalone, Alex Okafor, and Klein.
The Saints have mostly done well to keep the defense playing at a reasonable level, but in such a critical matchup– a Saints win virtually ensures the division; a loss means they’ll have to win next week just to secure a playoff spot– that kind of talent drain could make a difference. Here’s hoping the two truly critical players to the defense, Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore, stay healthy. Speaking of healthy, Michael Thomas showed up on the injury report Friday and is now listed as questionable. I imagine he’ll play, but the Saints really don’t need anything hobbling their key players on offense, either.
Now, to discuss something more fun than injuries: The Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week, and the Saints were among the league leaders for honors; their six selections tied Philadelphia for the most in the NFC. (Pittsburgh led the league with eight.) The two keys to the Saints’ resurgent defense were rewarded, as Cameron Jordan was selected to his third Pro Bowl, in the midst of a ten-sack season, and Marshon Lattimore, despite the games missed due to injury, earned a well-deserved selection, as when he’s on the field he’s arguably been the best cornerback in the NFL– an astounding feat for a 21-year-old rookie.
On the offensive side of the ball, four Saints were chosen. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were both selected; they rank fourth and sixth respectively in yards from scrimmage among running backs, with Kamara leading the NFL in yards per carry. They become the first tandem of running backs selected from the same team since the 1970s (not including duos were one player was selected to the fullback position). Michael Thomas received his first Pro Bowl selection as well; astonishingly, he becomes the first wide receiver the Saints have had selected to the Pro Bowl in the Drew Brees era. Thomas is currently sixth in the NFL in receiving yards, and during the Jets game became the second player in NFL history to record 90 receptions in each of his first two seasons. (Odell Beckham Jr. was the first.) With nine more receptions in his last two games, Thomas will have the most catches in his first two years by any player in NFL history, surpassing second-place Beckham and leader Jarvis Landry. (Coincidentally, Landry and Beckham were teammates at LSU, both drafted in 2014.)
Drew Brees was selected once again; even in a season where his bulk numbers are at his lowest since 2009, he’s been more efficient than ever. He currently leads the league in adjusted net yards per attempt and completion percentage; his 71.8% figure on the latter would be a new NFL record, breaking Sam Bradford’s 71.6% last year (which broke Brees’ own record of 71.2% in 2011). This is Brees’ 11th selection to the Pro Bowl. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate and somehow has never won the award; perhaps 2017 is the year voters finally see fit to rectify that mistake.
Arguably, the Saints could’ve had even more selections; the offensive line has played like one of the best units in the league despite the injuries and re-shuffling, but not a single player was selected. (And injuries didn’t stop voters from selecting Dallas’ Tyron Smith). Dallas, Washington, and Philadelphia all got multiple linemen on the roster; the Saints couldn’t even place one? I would have chosen Max Unger to replace Travis Frederick; he’s the only player on the line who’s played every snap this season. Ryan Ramczyk also has a very strong case, given how he’s had to fill in at tackle unexpectedly and played at a substantially higher level than anyone could’ve expected. Everyone on the line has played well, though the other three starters– Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat, and Larry Warford– may have missed too much time to warrant consideration.
Last tidbit: The Saints are only the fourth team since the AFL/NFL merger to send two rookies to the Pro Bowl in one season. (Oddly enough, all four of these instances have come since 2011.)
The Saints’ Christmas Eve noon game in the Superdome against Atlanta is the national game on FOX in that time slot, and deservedly so. New Orleans has the chance to move one step closer to sealing a division title and to putting the hated rival Falcons out of the playoffs. The Saints’ performance against the Jets wasn’t inspiring, and the team’s stockpile of injuries still linger, but in such a crucial game, where the Saints are still favored– between five and six points depending on which book you use– we have to expect, and hope, they’ll step up to the challenge regardless.
Losing his dynamic play hampered the Saints offense quite a bit, but it was merely the worst of a cavalcade of injuries that night. Over the course of the game, the following players were injured and were at least looked at for a period of time on the sideline: Kamara, Senio Kelemete, A.J. Klein, Trey Hendrickson, Ted Ginn, Kenny Vaccaro, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas, David Onyemata, and Josh Hill. The first six missed significant snaps as a result; Kelemete was already filling in for Andrus Peat at guard, and Hendrickson has replaced Alex Okafor at defensive end after the latter went to injured reserve. Missing so much front-line talent will eventually wear down any team’s performance.
On top of that, Sean Payton’s complaints about the refereeing after the game were wholly justified. In a closely fought, tough game, penalties can make all the difference, and the Saints were flagged eleven times for 87 yards, as opposed to the home team’s four penalties for 35 yards.
Three penalties in particular stood out as game-altering:
The sad fact, though, is that the Saints were still in position to win the game despite everything that had gone wrong. They had a 17-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter, and even after allowing ten unanswered points, were driving late. That’s when Sean Payton made one of my favorite calls of the season: With 1:53 left, on 4th-and-1 from the Atlanta 24, Payton decided, instead of a Wil Lutz field goal attempt and a hope to hold Atlanta scoreless and win in overtime, he’d go for the first down, try to run down the clock and score a game-winning touchdown right then and there. Most coaches would take the “safe” play here and kick the field goal– the irony, of course, is that it’s not safe at all and doesn’t guarantee a better shot of winning; it just shields the coach from criticism and defers a difficult decision to later.
Payton called a quarterback sneak and Brees gained two yards. A few plays later, with the ball at the Atlanta 11, Brees decided to throw a pass down the middle for Josh Hill, even though Deion Jones still had inside position on Hill and was in the better position to make the catch. He did, of course, and that sealed New Orleans’ fate.
It was a baffling decision by Brees; he certainly has his moments where he will make an inexplicable decision out of nowhere, but even by those standards, Brees has some explaining to do. Hill had no chance of getting to the ball first where Brees put it; indeed, two other Atlanta defenders arguably had a better shot. On top of that, the stakes were far too high to try something so risky; it was only second down, and New Orleans could have again tried to score on third down, and in the worst case scenario kicked the same field goal but left Atlanta less time to score.
For Hill, this failure to outmuscle Jones to the catch point comes after he had a crucial fumble last week against Carolina, not to mention his fumble inside the 10 against Buffalo. I know tight end is a shaky position for New Orleans with Coby Fleener on IR, but hey, all the more reason to not run plays designed for your tight ends in critical moments.
