A Chinese farmer owned a horse, which one day ran away. The neighbors said, “That’s too bad.” The farmer replied, “Good thing, bad thing, who can say?” When the horse returned, it brought several wild horses with him. The neighbors said, “What good fortune!” The farmer replied, “Good thing, bad thing, who can say?” While trying to train one of the horses, the farmer’s son was thrown riding it, and broke his leg. The neighbors sad, “What bad luck!” The farmer replied, “Good thing, bad thing, who can say?” While the farmer’s son was recuperating, the emperor came to the village to conscript all the young men for the upcoming war. The farmer’s son, not being of able body, was spared. The neighbors said, “What a blessing!” Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?This April, when the Saints were on deck with the #32 pick of the draft, Seattle was on the clock. Expecting Seattle wouldn’t take a linebacker, the Saints called Alabama’s Reuben Foster– the draft’s top middle linebacker prospect, a position long considered a key need for New Orleans– to let him know they would be selecting him. The Saints were correct; the Seahawks had no intention of taking Foster. Seattle instead traded down, sending the pick to San Francisco for #34 and other picks, and the 49ers selected Foster, whom GM John Lynch later said had their third-highest grade of any prospect in the entire draft. (Presumably, #1 pick Myles Garrett, and the 49ers first pick at #3, Solomon Thomas, were #1 and #2.) The Saints, subsequently, selected Wisconsin tackle Ryan Ramczyk, a player who had been unable to work out at any point in the pre-draft process due to a shoulder injury, and who would be projected to back up Armstead and right tackle Zach Strief. When the story of the Saints calling Foster came out, fans of other teams and some media members got a chuckle at the Saints getting egg on their face. The resulting Ramczyk pick left many of the Saints’ own fans perplexed, if not incredulous: This is why we traded Brandin Cooks? For a luxury player who probably won’t see the field year one? Who we don’t even know is healthy enough to play? Good thing, bad thing. Who can say? Armstead’s June injury required surgery and placed him on the Physically Unable to Perform list to start the season. Ramczyk, without even much preseason experience, had to step in and play NFL left tackle from day 1. Astoundingly, he did quite well, rarely allowing pressure in his time there despite the position’s rather steep learning curve. Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
Eventually Armstead returned, but then Strief went down with a knee injury. Strief was a longtime mainstay and the final tie to New Orleans’ 2006 draft class, the one that eventually helped them win the Super Bowl.* It was something of a symbolic goodbye to that era; Drew Brees and Thomas Morstead were the only players on that Super Bowl roster who have remained with the team to this day.** Of course. As soon as we get to full strength, the other one gets hurt.
*Appropriate, then, that he be replaced by a member of the 2017 class, which is shaping up to be similarly great.
** Backup quarterback Chase Daniel has also returned after stints in Kansas City and Philadelphia.
Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
Since then, Ramczyk has started at right tackle, the team’s intended long-term position for him, and currently rates as Pro Football Focus’ #12 tackle on the season (both right and left), while being among the league leaders in snaps at the position. (He has graded far higher than the two tackles selected similarly high, with an 80.1 grade to Garett Bolles 65.5 and Cam Robinson’s 38.3.)
Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
The team signed defensive tackle Nick Fairley to a four-year, $28 million contract after he played well on a one-year deal last season, only to see doctors discover a previously undiagnosed heart condition which caused him to miss the season (and may demand his retirement). Same old Saints. Overpaying free agents and getting nothing for it.
Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
In his absence, second-year player David Onyemata has stepped up as an interior penetrator on the defensive line, among the league leaders in total tackles behind the line of scrimmage (counting both run plays and sacks), despite only playing about half of the defensive snaps on the year.
Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
Marshon Lattimore missed week 3 against Carolina with an injury. The fans held their breath: This is why we’re 0-2. We spend high draft picks on injured players. We act like we’re always one player away, when we’re not.
Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
In Lattimore’s absence, Ken Crawley stepped into the starting lineup, and played outstanding football, notching two passes defensed as well as leading the team in tackles. Crawley started next week in London against Miami after P.J. Williams was benched for a violation of team rules, and his end-zone interception on the Dolphins’ first drive killed their best chance of scoring in a 20-0 shutout. After those two performances, Crawley took a permanent spot in the starting lineup, forcing the oft-burned De’Vante Harris and the actually-pretty-good Williams to the bench.
Good thing, bad thing. Who can say?
It seems like so many of the breaks a team needs have gone the Saints’ way so far. Injuries are inevitable; having a good player behind the starter isn’t. Discovering a good player because of an injury is rarer still. The Saints have been getting lucky with opponent selection, too, as quarterbacks seem to incur injuries just before they play New Orleans. But you always need breaks to win the Super Bowl, as I mentioned previously.
That said: Any doubts about the quality of some of the Saints’ wins– a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers; a Bucs team that had to play Ryan Fitzpatrick for a half; the Bears, in general– were erased this week. While research indicates that the results of one-score games are often random, and winning a lot of them isn’t an indicator of quality, winning blowouts, even against bad teams, definitely is. (As a side note, New Orleans has not been involved in a single one-score game, defined as “games where the margin of victory is seven points or fewer,” all season.)
The simple fact is, winning a road game 47-10, against any other team in the National Football League, is extremely difficult– let alone winning one against a 5-3 team. For comparison, the 0-9 Cleveland Browns’ worst home loss this season is by 31-7 to Cincinnati in week 4. That’s 24 points; the Saints just beat the Bills by 37 points. The previous worst home loss this year was the New York Giants’ 51-17 drubbing at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams in week 9. The Giants are now 1-8 and just lost to a certain previously 0-8 team that now employs Reuben Foster. Again, the Bills still have a winning record after the loss to the Saints. Dominated isn’t even the right word: Like a mad scientist whose ransom demands aren’t met, the Saints fired their Doomsday Laser at Orchard Park on Sunday, leaving only a smoking, scarred crater of an opposing football team and its fans’ dreams.
The Saints have turned a corner. This defense, as befits a young unit, may be getting better each week, with experience, the confidence provided by continued success, and the way both in turn engender a positive cycle. The offense had its top five linemen healthy again (sans Strief, who is on injured reserve) and dominated up front, resulting in– minus four kneeldowns– 44 carries for 302 yards, including six touchdowns by four different players. Dynamic duo Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, the starters, ripped off yards at will, totaling 237 yards on 33 carries between them. (As you can see from the GIF earlier in the article, Armstead is healthy again and obliterated a defender on Drew Brees’ touchdown run. Even rarely-used rookie backup Trey Edmunds broke free for a long touchdown in garbage time.) With that working in the running game– as well as Kamara catching all five of his targets for 32 yards– the Saints didn’t need much in the passing game. When they did, Michael Thomas was open; he caught nine of his ten targets for 117 of the Saints’ 184 passing yards, including two difficult grabs downfield that showed off his body control, awareness, and sure hands, and converted important first downs.Eagles:
— Nick (@Nickolah84) November 13, 2017
8-1 overall
Their opponents (removing games vs. Eagles): 22-35, .386
Vs. winning teams: 1-1 (Panthers, Chiefs)
Saints:
7-2 overall
Their opponents (removing games vs. Saints): 42-28, .600
Vs. winning teams: 4-2 (Lions, Packers, Bills, Vikings, Patriots)
